Gallery¶
One-liner: Measured sentences grouped by phenomenon, including rejects. Each card states: what the sentence is, the three-window five KPIs, and the conclusion.
Trend¶
MA golden cross (BTC · 2h)¶
- Sentence: go long when the close is above the 50-day line and just crossed above the 200-day; exit on break of the 50-day.
- Three-window five KPIs: bear +3.7% / bull +3.0% / recent −3.1%.
- Conclusion: recent-window CAGR is negative; against the falsification line, this sentence does not hold in the recent window.
Funding¶
Funding fade¶
- Sentence: fade extreme funding rates.
- Three-window five KPIs: bear +2.7% / bull +3.0% / recent −3.4%.
- Conclusion: recent-window CAGR is negative; this sentence does not hold in the recent window.
Calendar¶
Monday rebound¶
- Sentence: buy after Monday open, sell before Friday close.
- Three-window five KPIs: bear +0.61% / bull +0.46% / recent +0.06%.
- Conclusion: all three windows are near zero; this sentence does not hold.
Cross-symbol¶
BTC leads AI alts¶
- Sentence: when BTC leads, AI alts follow.
- Three-window five KPIs: bear no sample / bull +2.81% / recent −1.52%.
- Conclusion: recent-window CAGR is negative; this sentence does not hold in the recent window.
Fat-tail¶
P99 big-order chase¶
- Sentence: chase P99 big orders.
- Three-window five KPIs: bear +0.24% / bull −0.25% / recent +0.28%.
- Conclusion: all three windows are near zero; this sentence does not hold.
Cross-section¶
CS momentum + amount¶
- Sentence: score a basket daily by momentum + amount, buy the top N.
- Conclusion: loses to the equal-weight benchmark in all three windows; reject.
Hot sectors¶
- Sentence: buy the top N hot sectors.
- Conclusion: loses to the equal-weight benchmark in all three windows; reject.
Tenbagger cohort¶
- Sentence: buy the tenbagger cohort.
- Conclusion: needs a measurable rewrite; reject.
Beta¶
US SPY / QQQ buy-and-hold¶
- Sentence: buying the ETF misses the US bull; you must pick stocks or wait for a washout.
- Local five KPIs: SPY CAGR 13.7% / MaxDD −34.1%; QQQ CAGR 20.4% / MaxDD −35.6%. Washout timing CAGR below same-window buy-and-hold.
- Conclusion: class is beta. The popular sentence is hit. Declared reject.
AI chip-sales QoQ vs BTC regime¶
- Sentence: when AI compute spend QoQ is high, BTC closed bars sit below MA200 more often (not next-few-days return, not the segment labels).
- Phase 1: high-QoQ below MA200 13.4% vs low-QoQ 50.5% (−37pp). Same sign in bull and recent.
- Conclusion: opposite of the paper claim. Not
--declared. Walkthrough: docs/examples/20260914_ai_chip_spend_btc_regime.en.md.