Process

One-liner: From an idea to a KPI table, five steps: fill the template → pick the court → write the YAML → run the backtest → read the table and conclude.

The five steps

1. Fill the template: write the idea into the five boxes of docs/hypothesis_template.md (mechanism, expected regime, contract, falsification, landing).
2. Pick the court: event backtest or cross-section backtest, based on “one symbol vs a basket”.
3. Write the YAML: translate the contract into config/strategies/<archetype>/*.yaml.
4. Run the backtest: scripts/event_backtest.py or the cross-section script, printing the three-window five-KPI table.
5. Read the table and conclude: against the falsification line you wrote in advance, write your own “this sentence holds / doesn’t hold in the recent window”.

Who does what

• You: fill the template, read the table, write the conclusion.
• The AI: helps translate the template into YAML, runs the scripts, retells the table as prose.
• The program: computes features, fills trades, prints the table.

Fine print

• Fill the template
• Talk to the AI
• Who writes what